NHL Playoff Preview

A quick pre-analysis summary of my picks for the opening round of the upcoming NHL playoffs: I like three home-ice advantage teams to move on in the East and only one in the West.

Here’s what it means: probably nothing. That’s because, with the exception of the Islanders/Sabres series, there is no clear favorite in any of the seven other showdowns.

With that out of the way, let’s get down to business – in this case, courting the wrath of otherwise understanding people in eight cities.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 DETROIT (50-19-13) VS. #8 CALGARY (43-28-10)

Season series – Det: 2-2-0; Cgy: 2-2-0

KEYS TO THE SERIES: Dominik Hasek’s health, both physical and spiritual; the Flames’ offense (255 goals-for in 81 games) – which, incredibly, was better this year than Detroit’s (254 in 82 games) – coming through in support of Miikka Kiprusoff, who has not resembled his Vezina-winning self at times this season; Pavel Datsyuk’s affinity for corners; the quality of Kris Draper’s shutdown job on Jarome Iginla; Dion Phaneuf improving his meager 0.14 playoff points-per-game average from last season.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Flames: Brad Stuart, who has looked much better on Calgary’s blueline than he did on Boston’s; Daymond Langkow, Calgary’s top plus/minus forward (plus-23) this year.

Red Wings: Henrik Zetterberg, who still has to prove he’s as good in the playoffs as he is any other time of year; Kyle Calder, who put up 14 points in 19 games after the Flyers dealt him to Detroit.

ANALYSIS: There are no shortage of NHL observers willing to question how well the Wings are built for the postseason. I am at least partly to blame for that surplus. The Wings are in for a rough reception from the Flames and losing minute-munching defenseman Niklas Kronwall until June won’t help matters at all. If Calgary can steal a game at Joe Louis Arena, they won’t waste their opportunities at home – especially if Kiprusoff continues his improved play.

PREDICTION: Calgary in 6.

Ken Campbell: Detroit has won the Presidents' Trophy the past two years and finished in the top three in the NHL each of the past three and have exactly one playoff round victory to show for it. Much of the reason for that has been Pavel Datsyuk, who hasn't scored a playoff goal in 26 games and just earned a seven-year contract. If Henrik Zetterberg plays, he'll be playing his first games in more than a month. If the Flames can steal one of the first two in Detroit, they stand a great chance to steal the series. The Wings have piled up too many points against inferior opponents this year, but the Flames are not that. PREDICTION: Calgary in 6.

#2 ANAHEIM (48-20-14) VS. #7 MINNESOTA (48-26-8)

Season series – Ana: 2-1-1; Min: 2-2-0

KEYS TO THE SERIES: Improved post-season performances from Ducks young guns Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf; the ability of both teams to stay out of the penalty box; Minnesota’s success (or more accurately, their lack thereof) in the faceoff circle; Niklas Backstrom’s increasingly impressive impositions on other teams’ offense; Francois Beauchemin and Dustin Penner demonstrating they are more than just a couple of one-playoff wonders; Mark Parrish coming out and having the first productive playoffs of his career.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Wild: Marian Gaborik, who is looking like he’s ready to grab the spotlight and never let go; Brian Rolston, who will see a lot of ice time in just about every situation.

Ducks: Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, both of whom will be worked within an inch of their lives.

ANALYSIS: Last season, I thought the Ducks would surprise a lot of people in the playoffs. They did. I think they’ll surprise people again this year, but not for reasons their PR people will care to boast about. Gaborik might just be the best player on either team and when you add Backstrom’s superb play in goal to the mix, you have the makings of a big upset. It won’t be a cakewalk for the Wild, but I have much faith in Jacques Lemaire’s unrivaled talent at totally sucking the offensive life out of the opposition. Call him Count Trapula – and call his Wild the winners here.

PREDICTION: Minnesota in 7.

Ken Campbell: This series might be one of the dullest of the playoffs, but it will also be the one most devoid of mistakes because both teams are so well coached. Look for one of Chris Pronger or Scott Niedermayer to be on the ice almost all the time, which means Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra will be in for a long, long series. This series pits one of the best power-play teams in the Ducks against one of the best penalty-killing teams in the Wild.The ducks took the season series, but all were one-goal games. PREDICTION: Anaheim in 7.

#3 VANCOUVER (49-26-7) VS. #6 DALLAS (50-25-7)

Season series – Van: 2-2-0; Dal: 2-1-1

KEYS TO THE SERIES: Roberto Luongo, Roberto Luongo and Roberto Luongo; the Stars’ blueline, which on paper is superior to Vancouver’s in almost every measurable category; a return to form by Markus Naslund; a first visit to form by the enigmatic Ladislav Nagy; the Sedin twins; Brenden Morrow, who’s amassed nearly a point per game in the 10 regular-season match-ups he played since returning from an injury in December; also, Roberto Luongo.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Stars: Marty Turco, who may play better as the underdog than he has as the favorite; Mike Ribeiro, whose past playoff efforts have left much to be desired.

Canucks: Roberto Luongo. Perhaps I’m belaboring the point, but in this case, I don’t think that’s possible; Brendan Morrison, who needs to pick up the point-getting pace we saw from him earlier in the season.

ANALYSIS: No Western Conference playoff team scored fewer regular season goals than the Canucks and there’s no evidence to suggest that will change now. The Stars aren’t much better in that department, but there’s a quiet desperation hanging over Dallas because people know another first round disappointment will mean the end of Marty Turco’s Stars career, as well as a possible permanent vacation for coach Dave Tippett. I made Dallas my dark horse/Cinderella team in this year’s THN Playoff preview and I’m not wussing out now.

PREDICTION: Dallas in 6.

Ken Campbell: This could prove to be another snoozer because it pits two of the most offensively limp and rigidly defensive teams in the league against one another. The two teams split the season series right down the middle with all four games being decided by 2-1 scores. Got the adrenaline flowing yet? The goaltending match up will be an interesting one, pitting a great regular-season tender with no playoff experience (Roberto Luongo) against a great regular-season tender with nightmarish playoff experience (Marty Turco). If you live in the east and stay up to watch these games, just remember, you're never going to get that time back. PREDICTION: Vancouver in 6.

#4 NASHVILLE (51-23- 8) VS. #5 SAN JOSE (51-26-5)

Season series – Nsh: 3-1-0; SJ: 1-2-1

KEYS TO THE SERIES: The decisions made by coaches Barry Trotz and Ron Wilson as to who will start in their respective nets; Steve Sullivan’s back spasms; Bill Guerin shaking the ghosts of poor playoffs past; Mike Grier recapturing the magic he made during Buffalo’s memorable Stanley Cup run last season; somebody’s big three (Peter Forsberg, Paul Kariya and Jason Arnott, or Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Jonathan Cheechoo) outplaying the other side’s big three; David Legwand providing the same, stellar two-way play he did through the regular season.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Sharks: Joe Thornton, under pressure to shut up critics of his post-season passion once and for all; Mark Bell, under pressure to make amends for a disastrous first year in San Jose;

Predators: J-P Dumont, poised to be as important to Nashville’s post-season as he was to Buffalo’s in 2005-06; Kimmo Timonen, who will be a huge part of the Preds’ power play attack.

ANALYSIS: This could go down as one of the most talented first-round match ups in league history – and it ought to be one of the most thrilling as well. Both teams have relatively inexperienced defense units, but I like Nashville’s blueline over San Jose’s in a photo finish. And I think Paul Kariya is going to have a career-defining post-season, with more than a little help from Forsberg. That’s why, if both sides stay healthy, I’m going with the Tennessee Terrors.

PREDICTION: Nashville in 7.

Ken Campbell: San Jose was another team that was extremely hot down the stretch, while Nashville was pretty ordinary, but that won't be a factor. Watch for the Sharks to do what would have been suicide 10 years ago and that's go right after Peter Forsberg and challenge him physically. San Jose is healthy and peaking while the Predators are hurting up front. San Jose's third and fourth lines are far better than Nashville's and that could be the difference. Dan Hamhuis and Shea Weber have been terrific, but you have to wonder whether they can shut down Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo for a seven-game series. With just eight goals and 27 points in 46 post-season games, Thornton has his own playoff demons to dispense with this season. PREDICTION: San Jose in 6.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 BUFFALO (53-22-7) VS. #8 N.Y. ISLANDERS (40-30-12)

Season series – Buf: 3-1-0; NYI: 1-3-0

KEYS TO THE SERIES: The noggins of Rick DiPietro and Tim Connolly, for entirely medical reasons; the noggin of Alexei Yashin, for entirely psychological reasons; Derek Roy’s ability to act as a rash on his opponent’s collective groin area; Buffalo’s middling special teams; the amount of rubber the Islanders allow to be fired at their netminder (32.7 shots a game – fourth-worst in the league this year); the Isles’ patchwork defense corps holding together against the NHL’s most potent offense.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Islanders: Jason Blake and Ryan Smyth, both playing for big-dollar contracts next season.

Sabres: Chris Drury, like Blake and Smyth an unrestricted free agent this summer, but unlike Blake and Smyth, one of the game’s pre-eminent all-around dangers; Dainius Zubrus, who should follow up a career-best regular season with a similar job in the playoffs.

ANALYSIS: There’s little that would please me more than to see the ragtag Isles shock the hockey world with an upset of the best team in the league. However, you’re more likely to see Yashin hoist the Hart Trophy than that kind of outcome. Full marks to Garth Snow, Ted Nolan and the players for defying expectations and degradations, but their improbable season is about to have a very probable, very swift end.

PREDICTION: Buffalo in 5.

Ken Campbell: The Islanders should be heartily congratulated for making it to the playoffs in spite of their goofy owner and using a minor-league goalie down the stretch, but this is where they will meet head-on with reality. The Sabres will simply overwhelm the Islanders with their speed and talent and as good a shutdown guy as Brendan Witt is, he can't play 60 minutes a game. As usual, Ryan Smyth will be brilliant, but Daniel Briere, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Derek Roy and Chris Drury will be better. Jason Blake scores a lot of goals, but not enough of them are important ones. PREDICTION: Buffalo in 4.

#2 NEW JERSEY (49-24-8) VS. #7 TAMPA BAY (44-33-5)

Season series – NJ: 1-2-1; TB: 3-1-0

KEYS TO THE SERIES: The fallout from Lou Lamoriello’s decision to turf former coach Claude Julien with just days remaining in the regular season; Brad Richards (minus-19) and Vinny Prospal (minus-24) turning around their sub-par years; Johan Holmqvist’s ability to hold on to Tampa’s starting goaltender job; John Tortorella’s ability to hold off talking in public about “the 25 per cent rule”; Jamie Langenbrunner, living nightmare to spell-check programs and opposition first-liners. Martin Brodeur, living legend and post-season dynamo.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Lightning: Vinny Lecavalier and Martin St-Louis, simply the best duo in hockey since Pamela Anderson last attended a game.

Devils: Brian Gionta, who has to put up a bunch of points to justify his three-year, $12-million contract; Scott Gomez, setting his sights on making more than Gionta when he becomes a UFA this summer.

ANALYSIS: If it weren’t for an abundance of shootout wins, the Bolts wouldn’t have made the playoffs in the first place. They’ll likely never make it to overtime against the Devils, who have better goaltending and a better blueline. But New Jersey’s biggest advantage against the Lightning are its superior plugger types (Sergei Brylin, Jay Pandolfo, John Madden), all of whom won’t give Lecavalier and St-Louis room to breathe, let alone get close to Brodeur’s net.

PREDICTION: New Jersey in 6.

Ken Campbell: You can look it up if you want to, but take my word for it. Historically, the No. 2 vs. No. 7 match up has produced more upsets than any other in NHL history. No team in the playoffs is worse at penalty killing than the Lightning and, without a doubt, the Devils have huge advantages on defense and in goal. But Tampa Bay has four players who thrive on these kinds of situations and are looking for redemption after an up-and-down season. PREDICTION: Tampa Bay in 7.

#3 ATLANTA (43-28-11) VS. #6 N.Y. RANGERS (42-30-10)

Season series – Atl: 3-1-0; NYR: 1-1-2

KEYS TO THE SERIES: The moods of Jaromir Jagr and Ilya Kovalchuk; Keith Tkachuk’s unflattering record as a playoff performer (teams he’s been on have suffered a first-round series loss nine of 11 times); Martin Straka’s spotty post-season past; Sean Avery’s verbal and on-ice daggers; Kari Lehtonen’s reaction to his first-ever playoffs and Henrik Lundqvist’s reaction to his second; who’s tougher – Colton Orr or Jon Sim? (Just seeing whether you were paying attention this long into the column).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Rangers: Matt Cullen, who played a key role in Carolina’s championship story last year; Marek Malik, who doesn’t amass a Nick Lidstrom-like load of offense, but must be doing something right judging by his team-leading plus-minus (plus-32, which is also ninth-best in the league).

Thrashers: Marian Hossa, whose playoff points-per-game average is about half of his regular-season mark; Slava Kozlov, Atlanta’s top scorer of game-winning goals (eight) this year.

ANALYSIS: The addition of Avery has made a world of difference to the Rangers, who needed a sneer transplant in the worst way. The Thrashers also made some important additions (Tkachuk, Alexei Zhitnik) during the season, but the book has been out on those guys for (a) some time and (b) good reason. It’s swell and all that Don Waddell came through on that playoff promise from last season, but it’s a good thing he didn’t extend said guarantee through the first round.

PREDICTION: Rangers in 7.

Ken Campbell: Both teams were among the hottest in the league coming down the stretch. Too bad late-season momentum doesn't mean squat in the playoffs. Each team has about the same ability to score goals, but the Rangers are far better defensively than the Thrashers and are far better than the Thrashers on both sides of special teams. It could be argued there hasn't been a better goalie in the league than Henrik Lundqvist since the all-star break. But the Thrashers have far more offensive depth on their top two lines and Bobby Holik has been known to shut down the odd Ranger forward during his career. Look for Atlanta to squeak it out. PREDICTION: Atlanta in 7.

#4 OTTAWA (48-25-9) VS. #5 PITTSBURGH (47-24-11)

Season series – Ott: 1-1-2; Pit: 3-1-0

KEYS TO THE SERIES: The old New Wave (Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, Wade Redden) vs. the new New Wave (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Whitney); Gary Roberts’ leadership vs. Daniel Alfredsson’s leadership (talk about your study in contrasts); the defensive efforts of centers Mike Fisher and Jordan Staal; the search party in charge of locating the old Mike Comrie; the amount of gas Mark Recchi still has left in the tank; Pittsburgh’s so-so road record; Ottawa’s blasé power play.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Penguins: Sergei Gonchar, who rebounded from a brutal 2005-06 campaign to finish second in scoring among all NHL defensemen; Marc-Andre Fleury, who had 40 wins this season, but a gaudy 2.83 goals-against average as well.

Senators: Peter Schaeffer, aiming to at least replicate the productive playoff he had last year; Ray Emery, who looks ready to make the jump from unproven commodity to post-season difference-maker.

ANALYSIS: This, like the Preds/Sharks series, the Sens/Pens tilt should be a feast for the eyes. More than a third of the Penguins’ roster has absolutely no playoff experience, which usually is a factor – and not a positive one – when NHL games count the most. Fleury has to be consistently outstanding for Pittsburgh to have a shot, so it must be troubling for Pens management to realize they haven’t seen that consistency yet. It’ll be close, but it’ll be the Senators.

PREDICTION: Senators in 6.

Ken Campbell: This could be the most exciting match up of the entire playoffs this season. There are serious, serious concerns about Ottawa's leadership group and anyone should be wary of them in the playoffs until they prove they can perform well under pressure and deal with adversity without crumbling. The Penguins go into the series with nothing to lose because nobody expected them to be this good. But every dynasty – and the Penguins will be one someday – has to learn to win by losing and while Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal will be brilliant, the Penguins will learn that painful lesson this spring. the Penguins won three of four against Ottawa this season, but two of those wins were in shootouts. PREDICTION: Ottawa in 6.